Voyage Estimation(reproduced)

  This month let us look at voyageestimation. I feel the best way tounderstand this subject isthrough an example. Some ofyou may find it little difficult inthe beginning but as you workthrough the example given, you would be able to figure out thesteps and understand the mechanics. The example deals with avoyage estimate for iron ore business from Port Hedland inAustralia to Lianyungang in China. Full forms of most of theabbreviations were given in earlier articles. However, in orderto make it easier and for quick reference, you will find the fullforms given at the end of the article.
  The purpose of this exercise is not to make you an expertchartering executive in an operator’s or ship owner’s office butto give a decent idea of the mechanics involved and anunderstanding of how bunker consumption and speed affect the business in addition to the total number of days and thus thenecessity of ensuring nil off hire.
 
Example:
A ship owner has received the following indication from chartererdirectly:
Acct: FCC52,000MT IRON ORE IN BULK 10PCT MOLOO
1SBP PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA / 1SBPLIANYUNGANG
LAYCAN : 15 -22 SEP’01FRT (Freight in US $/tonne)
INVITE OWNERS BEST BSS (Basis)FIOST, 1/1 (1 Port for loading and 1 port for discharging)
LOADING RATE: 40,000MT PWWD SHINC
DISCHARGING RATE: CQD (Take as 4 days)
NO ADDCOMM )(No address commission for Charterers)/NO BROKERAGE
END
 
Some relevant information:
– Vessel free Hong Kong (it means that the vessel will need to ballast from Hong Kong to the load port, assuming no cargo available).
– Vessel can load 54,000 mt iron ore maximum
– Vessel ETA loadport 17 SEP’ 01
– Speed : 13 knots
– Bunker consumption: F.O. 35mt per day
– D.O. at sea 2mt per day
– D.O. in port 4mt per day
– Price of F.O. $ 110.-
– Price of D.O. $ 155.-
– Port Disbursements
– At Port Hedland $30,000.-
– At Lianyungang $30,000.-
(Port Disbursement means: Expenses at port for various heads such as port charges, tugs, pilotage etc. ).
– Other expense assume $ 3,000.-
– Charterer “in”Vessel daily hire $ 6,000.-
– Discharging take about 4 days
– Distance: HongKong/Port Hedland2,710 nautical mile
– Port Hedland/Lianyungang 3,257 nautical mile

a) Prepare a voyage estimate and give the break-even freight rate.
b) Draft a firm offer in short form to reply the above indication from Charterer.
Your reply should include all the followings:
– the normal main terms
– assume a vessel name and some particulars (need not put figures except DWT, Yr built, Flag, Class, Cubics, GRT/NRT)
– freight rate and payment
– Loading and discharging rate
– Taxes and charter party form, etc.
ANSWER a):
SAILING DAYS REQUIRED:
A) HONG KONG/PORT HEDLAND = 2710/312 (13KNOTS*24 HRS) = 8.69 DAYS
BALLAST PASSAGE
B) PORT HEDLAND/LIANYUNGANG = 3257/312 (13KNOTS*24 HRS)= 10.44 DAYS
LADEN PASSAGE
(For simplicity: (1) Same speed/fuel consumption taken for loaded and ballast legs, in practice, it is better to describe them separately e.g. Ballast 13.5 Kn at 34 mt and Loaded 12.5 at 34mt. (2) No weather factor taken. Generally may add about 3days or 5% to the total number of sailing days, as reasonable to do so depending upon the length of the business and expected weather at the time of year).
PORT STAY:
C) LOADPORT I.E. PORT HEDLAND 54,000 MTS CARGO/40,000 MTS LOAD RATE = 1.35 DAYS
D) DISPORT (Discharge Port) I.E. LIANYUNGANG = 4DAYS (GIVEN IN QUESTION)TOTAL DURATION (A+B+C+D) = 24.48 DAYS, say 24.5days.
BUNKER/FUEL COST:
WHILE SAILING:
E) FUEL OIL = 19.13 DAYS (A+B) * 35 MTS/DAYCONSUMPTION * USD 110/PMT = USD 73,650
F) DIESEL OIL = 19.13 DAYS * 2 MTS/DAY * USD 155/PMT = USD 5,930IN PORT CONSUMPTION:
G) DIESEL OIL = 5.35 DAYS (C+D) * 4 MTS/DAY * USD155/PMT = USD 3,317
TOTAL BUNKER COST (E+F+G) = USD 82,877
TOTAL VOYAGE COST:
BUNKER COST = USD 82,877
PORT DISB = USD 60,000
CHARTERED IN VESSEL COST = USD146,850
OTHER EXPS = USD 3,000
TOTAL = USD 292,727
BREAK EVEN FREIGHT RATE REQUIRED TO PERFORM
THIS VOYAGE:
USD 292,727/54,000 MTS CARGO = USD5.42 PMT
ROUNDED OFF TO USD 5.40 PMT
Points to ponder:
1. Suppose the vessel had an engine breakdown and the repairstook 4 days at sea. (Hint: No main engine consumption for these 4 days but generators will be running).
2. Suppose vessel faced bad weather and took 3 days extra. Assume same Main Engine consumption for these 3 days but the speed had dropped due to adverse current/swell and wind.How will the breakeven rate be affected in each of above cases?

 
ANSWER b):
OWNERS ARE PLEASED TO OFFER FIRM AS FOLOWS SUBJECT REPLY WITHIN 30 MINUTES TODAY, 3 SEPTEMBER 2001:
MV COMMERCIAL ASPECTS
BUILT FEB 1987
HONG KONG FLAG/CLASSED LLOYDS
7 HO/7 HA
GRAIN CUBICS: 70,000 CBM
GT/NT 32222/23333
ALL DETAILS ABOUT
FOR
ACCOUNT: FCC
CARGO/QTY: 50,000 MTS IRON ORE IN BULK 10 PCT
MOLOO
1SBP PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA / 1SP
LIANYUNGANG, CHINA
LAYCAN 0001 HRS 15SEPT/2400 HRS 22SEPT, 2001
(LOCAL TIME). VSLS ETA PORT HEDLAND 12 SEPT
AGW UCAE WP.
LOADRATE/DISRATE: 40,000 MTS PWWD SHINC /
DISCHARGE CQD(see associated risks at the end of the article)
FREIGHT RATE: USD 8 PMT FIOST BASIS 1/1
DEMMURAGE/DESPATCH: USD 10,000 DHD
PAYMENT: 95 PCT FREIGHT PAYABLE WITHIN 3
BANKING DAYS AFTER SIGNING RELEASING B/L (Bills of Lading) MARKED FREIGHT PAYABLE AS PER CP.
BALANCE 5 PCT TOGETHER WITH DEMMURAGE/
DESPATCH, IF ANY, TO BE SETTLED WITHIN 30 DAYS OF COMPLETION OF DISCHARGE.
TAX CLAUSE: TAXES/DUES LEVIED ON THE CARGO SHALL BE PAID BY CHARTERERS AND TAXES/DUES LEVIED ON THE VESSEL SHALL BE PAID BY OWNERS.
NO ADDRESS COMMISSION TO CHARTERERS/BROKERAGE.
SUBJECT DETAILS BASED ON CHARTERERS FULLY EXECUTED GENCON CP TO BE MUTUALLY REVIEWED/AGREED.
ALL CHARTS SUBJECTS TO BE LIFTED WITHIN 24HOURS AFTER FIXING MAIN TERMS.
END OFFER++

NOTES:
– IN A VOYAGE OFFER THERE IS NO NEED TO GIVE THE VESSELS SPEED/CONSUMPTION
– FCC: First Class Charterer; MOLOO: More or Less in Owners’ Option; SBP: Safe Berth, Port; FIOST: (Free In/Out and Trimmed. Charterer pays for cost of loading/discharging
 
By Education Officer, Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers, Hong Kong Branch
ps:
1、此文写于若于年前,而且文中数据仅为举例,与目前实际的数据有相当的差距。但文中所表达的相关思想,任然是有用的。供入门级朋友参考。。。
2、现在的航次估算,基本是有现成的Excel计算表格,已经不需要这样一步一步手动计算。。。
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